2013 Texas Rangers Predictions

Well, it's that time of year again, where everyone wins the pennant and October seems sure to be a cinch for all of our favorite teams.  This is also the time of year, I give my intake on how the Rangers season will unfold and what players will do what.  So, assuming everyone stays healthy (and that never happens) here's the way I see it:

Starting pitching:
Yu Darvish - He's a freak.  He has beyond major league talent and would pitch at the next level if there were such a thing.  He has dominating out pitches and has four of them that are tremendous.  He has another 3 or so pitches that he uses just to keep your head spinning.  At only age 26, he's yet to enter his prime window of 27-31.  His upside is Hall of Fame-caliber. The only thing that will hurt him is himself.  He had a tendency to throw too many pitches and walk more than he ever has in his life last year.  He'll get back to the dominant strike thrower this year that he has always been in Japan.
Prediction:  17-7, 3.15 ERA

Matt Harrison - Bulldog.  He has the ability to throw 200+ innings every year.  He's just now entering his prime at the age of 27.  Being a lefty in Rangers Ballpark gives him a tremendous advantage over other pitchers.  He's started big games for the Rangers (game 7 of the 2011 World Series) and in the playoffs vs. Tampa Bay. He'll sometimes get the ball up too much, but has largely commanded the strike zone and the mental aspect of pitching.  Prediction:  16-10, 3-38 ERA.

Alexi Ogando - He has the most devastating fastball/slider combo of anyone in the American League West.  He's flat-out untouchable when raring back and throwing from the bullpen.  However, as a starter, he's going to have to rely on a new changeup to keep hitters off-balance.  He was an All-Star as a starter two years ago and has the ability to be an upper-tier starter in this league, but he'll have to maintain stamina and keep developing his changeup to get through the order a third time around.  The biggest plus about Ogando is that he throws strikes.  He is very good at throwing strike one and getting ahead of hitters.  However, he might be the prime example of a pitcher "can" thrown too many strikes.  If a hitter is sitting dead-red on a fastball...it doesn't matter if it's 97 mph or 197 mph.  It's in the stands.  Much rests on Ogando's shoulders for this season.  He's in the middle of his prime at 29. Prediction:  12-12, 3.98 ERA.

Derek Holland - Has the exploding fastball and curve of a young Kenny Rogers.  He also has the exploding inning from time to time that makes you scratch your head and wonder how this kid can be so good at times and then lose focus and command immediately.  He hasn't entered his prime years yet being only 26, but it's time for Holland to show that he's more than a brilliant young lefty with potential and a great Harry Caray immitation.  More rests on Holland's shoulders this season than Ogando.  Prediction:  17-8, 3.84 ERA.  

Colby Lewis - Bulldog.  No telling what we'll get from a pitcher coming off of elbow surgery, but I'd be lying if I said that if he hadn't been hurt last year, this team wouldn't have collapsed and would have possibly been playing in a 3rd World Series in a row.  He's the old man of the staff at 33.  He throws strikes and he has one of the best curveballs in Rangers history.  I would rate his curveball with Nolan Ryan and John Wetteland.  He must be able to get the ball over 89 mph with his fastball to be effective.  If he can, he'll be rock solid, if he can't, he'll make for an early call-up for some kid.  He, himself won't be back from injury until mid-May, so it'll be kids filling in for awhile until he gets back.  Prediction:  10-10, 4.25 ERA

Bullpen:  This is going to be a roller-coaster.  

Closer Joe Nathan - Rock solid.  He's one of the best in the history of the game.  I see no indication that he'll take a step back.  He is, however, 38 and due for a step back...but he keeps himself in extremely great shape and he's a super smart pitcher.  He can't get rattled from game to game.  He's a pro's pro.  Prediction: 38 saves, 2.72 ERA

Tanner Scheppers - hard throwing (not so much of a kid anymore) at age 26 that has to prove that he's major league ready.  He will strike people out and he will give up a lot of hits with his unpolished stuff.  Prediction: ERA of 4.86

Robby Ross - This kid can pitch and he's only 23.  He's left-handed which is, once again, suited ideally for Rangers Ballpark.  He has the tools to be a starter at some point and I expect that from him next season.  But this season he will be in the bullpen as a situational lefty plus an innings eater and he'll be great.  Prediction:  2.94 ERA

Michael Kirkman - Same situation as Scheppers...it's time.  He's 26 and the Rangers must make a decision on him.  He's out of options, so they must carry him on the roster.  He has looked fabulous this spring and he has looked fabulous at times in the minors.  Once a starter, he's now a middle-reliever, but he's valuable and will work himself into an anchor bullpen role with this team. Prediction: ERA of 4.15

Josh Lindblom - 25 year-old righty with a hard fastball.  He came over in the Michael Young trade and I expect him to be almost the same pitcher as Mark Lowe was a year ago.  He's hard-throwing, but way too wild to be a dominant bullpen guy.  If he learns to throw strikes, he'll be very valuable...if he doesn't, he'll be yanked a ton by Ron Washington.  Prediction: ERA of 5.15 and a thorn in my strike-throwing wanting side.

Lineup:

Catcher:  A.J. Pierzynski - He will be a steady force in the clubhouse and with the pitchers.  He's gritty.  He's a winner.  Opposing fans hate him.  He plays hard.  He'll rip someone for lack of playing the game the right way.  He's my hero.  haha.  If you don't like the way this guy goes about his business, you don't like winners.  At age 36, he's well past his prime, but you'd never know it by the season he had last year with a career high 27 homers.  Don't expect that again this year, but he is hitting is left-handed hitter friendly Arlington and could hit 15 at home.  You'll love this guy and you'll want to buy his jersey.  Prediction:  .275 avg, 19 HR, 80 RBI

First Base:  Mitch Moreland - the new Josh Hamilton (the good Josh Hamilton).  Please welcome, one of the finest hitters on the team.  He's a masher and will take the ball the other way if he has to.  He's not just a pull and yank power hitter...he's a professional hitter that happens to have monster power.  All he's ever needed was to play every day and he'll get that chance this season.  At age 27, he's entering his prime and will be considered a Gold Glove candidate at 1st base and just might make the All-Star team if he doesn't slump early.  Prediction:  .290 avg, 29 HR, 92 RBI.

Second Base:  Ian Kinsler - This 30 year-old veteran better not have a season like last or he'll by Michael Young-ed to a coast.  I'm not so sure why he's the leadoff hitter here with Elvis on the team, but I trust in Wash.  He doesn't walk much.  He pops up nearly all of the time with runners in scoring position or two outs.  He won't take what the pitcher gives him.  He's not a great defensive 2nd baseman, but can make the spectacular play. His lack of focus will always have you on edge on the routine grounder.  He's not a good leader because he's too focused on himself instead of the team.  But, with all of that said bad about him.  He's still a HUGE part of this team and they need him to be what he can be.  And that is everything he was in 2011.  He has the potential to hit 30 homers, steal 30 bases and get on-base nearly 50 percent of the time.  He did that in 2011.  That's why he's so frustrating.  He seems to have the "I got paid" disease that affected guys like Hank Blalock.  I hope that's not the case because he could be the guy that bridges this team from a good hitting lineup to a great one.  But you never know what you're going to get from year to year...or pick-off attempt to pick-off attempt...  Prediction:  .255 avg, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 32 stolen bases.

Third Base:  Adrian Beltre - Best 3rd baseman in Rangers history by far...and that kills me to say because I loved Buddy Bell.  But there's no comparison.  Any Rangers fan needs no description of him.  He's the best defensive and offensive third baseman combined that I may have ever seen in my life. But he is now 33 and not getting younger and starting to have calf and leg injuries. Prediction:  .305 AVG, 32 HR, 105 RBI, Gold Glove, All-Star, MVP

Shortstop:  Elvis Andrus - slick fielding, slap hitting, always smiling, loving the game...etc.  This kid is only 24 and 3 years away from entering his prime.  He's going to get better and better and better and he's already really really good.  His fielding is phenomenal.  His ability to put the ball in play is what makes him an ideal #2 hitter and that more than anything keeps him from leading off.  His batting average has increased every year since 2010. I'm not sure there's anything not to like about this kid really.  He's a Hall-of-Fame caliber player if everything goes right with him.  Prediction: .302 avg, 3 HR, 32 stolen bases.

Left Field:  David Murphy - Patience has finally paid off for Murph who will finally get his opportunity to enter the season as the starting left fielder.  He had a great year last year in terms of proving he can hit lefties.  He also was a gold glove candidate and will once again be that this year.  He will take a walk and is a professional hitter.  He can hit upperdeck homers and dunks over the shortstop's head.  He's now 31 and in his last year of his prime.  I would expect Murph to be solid and lead the league in home crowd love.  Prediction: .285 avg, 22 HR, 74 RBI and 13 stolen bases.

Centerfield:  This is going to be a fun two-headed monster.  

Leonys Martin - He will wow you with his unbelievable tools.  By the end of June, you'll be saying, Josh who?  Leonys Martin will be the guy that you want at the plate late in games.  The Rangers opened the purse and signed him for a whopping 15 million two years ago and have yet to see the results on the field.  They are chomping at the bit to see him play.  He's largely the reason the Rangers started the silence4josh in the winter meetings.  He's a Cuban launch pad and he's only 25. Prediction: .289 avg, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 35 stolen bases. 

Craig Gentry will play vs left-handed pitchers and he can flat-out fly.  His speed matches anyone in baseball.  He won't hit for power, but he will get on and move around the bases in a hurry.  He's a late-inning base weapon.  At only 25 years-old, he'll maintain his speed for many years and will be a threat.  Girls will wear "Kitten-face" shirts all over the Ballpark by August. Prediction: .280 avg. 5 HR, 17 RBI, 18 stolen bases.

Right Field:  Nelson Cruz - who knows what's going to happen about a possible suspension.  But lets say he misses no time.  We all know of his super-human homerun power.  When he hits a homer, he hits it FAR.  He has some of the longest shots in the majors in the last few years.  He also can go to right field with the ball so you can't just pound him on the outer half and expect him to get himself out.  He's a good overall hitter.  Defensively, he comes in on the ball well, but we all know that he's not good at going back on the ball.  (ugh).  But he has a cannon of an arm and he's NOT a defensive liability out there like some bandwagon fans will have you believe.  At the age of 32, he's no longer a stolen base threat that he was only a couple of seasons ago.  Prediction: .264 avg, 28 HR, 94 RBI.

DH:  Lance Berkman - He is one of the greatest professional hitters in the history of the game.  His OPS ranks him in the all-time top 100 hitters.  That means he hits for power and he's patient enough to get on base and get base hits.  He's always on base.  He will take what the pitcher gives him and this, hopefully, will trend throughout the clubouse this season.  He has the ability to carry this team if he stays healthy.  But that's the main concern here with a 37 year-old coming off of knee surgery.  Assuming all goes well... Prediction:  .295 avg, 32 HR, 105 RBI.

Bench has yet to be determined, but we know Geovanni Soto will be the catcher and it appears that Jeff Baker will make the club.

Trade to look for:  If the Rangers feel like they can move Ian Kinsler at the deadline, they will pull the trigger.  They're hoping he performs well in the 1st half and garners some interest.  The Rangers want young Jurickson Profar to team with Elvis Andrus at shortstop for their future middle infield.  I have a feeling they won't be pushing to win that trade, just getting Kinsler moved will be the key.

Trade not to look for:  I highly doubt any trade talk of David Price for Profar or Andrus is likely at all.  I'd love to have David Price and to have him, you'd have to give up most likely Profar...but that's a very gutsy move.  JD has not made very gutsy moves...he makes moves that he knows he will win.  Profar could be Cal Ripken.  You don't trade Cal Ripken.

Overall summation:  Rangers do not fall on their face as everyone predicts.  They don't have Young anymore, but they are YOUNG and talented.  They have overhauled their team from an aging veteran team, to an up and coming powerhouse.  They're trying to model themselves after the 90's Atlanta Braves. Chipper Jones, Marquis Grissom and Ryan Klesko were all key figures on the Braves World Series Champion team in '95.  None of those guys played any role whatsoever on the back to back to back World Series appearances by the Braves in '91-'93.  

The Angels have spent themselves into a couple years of bliss and about five years of misery.  These next two seasons will be the Angels' to lose.  They have extreme talent...but they are aging talent out of their prime.  The Rangers have their entire starters virtually entering their prime.

AL West Prediction for 2013:

LA Angels 93-69
Texas Rangers 89-73
Oakland A's 87-75
Seattle Mariners 81-81
Houston Astros 50-112

Dear Ballplayer Parents: Please read

Ballplayer Parents: soon you will find yourself at your kids games. He/she will be at the plate or in the field. Please, please, please, please stay out of their head while they are concentrating. An athlete must be able to tune everyone out except their coaches. They have SO MUCH to think about. Please cheer when they do great things, but never ever tell them what they're doing wrong. It's likely a mixed message from what they've been told by their coaches and it only confuses them. When they swing and miss, give them encouragement for the next pitch or at bat. Never degrade them or tell them what they're doing wrong. The coaches will adjust them if they're truly out of sync. Its a great exercise of self-control.

Baseball is a game of failure. It will eat a competitive boy alive until he's grasped the mass quantities of failures that it takes to be successful in this game. The hardest thing in sports is to hit a round ball with a round bat squarely. If your young boy cries when he fails, it's ok. He's learning the hard way to overcome a lot of failure. It's healthy (to a point).

We will get on to your kids for lack of effort, or lack of attention or bad sportsmanship. But failing while trying their best will never be something they should be scolded for.

Being an athlete is just as much mental as physical. To be a champion, they MUST have a positive approach and never let negativity cross their minds. Champions see themselves hitting the ball even before they do it.

An athlete says, "I can do this"
A loser says, "I can't"
A champion says, "Watch this!"

Stay positive - parents and players.

Please.