Thursday, March 31, 2011

2011 Rangers Prediction

For many many many years I picked the Rangers to be better than what they truly were.  But the older I get, the more realistic I get.  Here's what I see from my crystal ball on the 2011 Rangers:

First of all, they are good.  Really good.  They can mash the ball like nobody's business and maybe to a tune better than anyone in baseball.  However, that doesn't equal championships as we saw in say, 1989, 1991, 1993, 2001, 2002, 2003, etc.  Those particular teams, as I recall, could absolutely destroy baseballs.  But they also destroyed baseballs when they pitched.  This years team has both good offense and good pitching and TONS of depth.

OFFENSE:  

With Michael Young moving to the DH, that gives enormous flexibility to the infield to give rest to injury prone Kinsler and a day off here and there to newly acquired Adrian Beltre.  It also gives Moreland a day off against a tough left-hander when Mike Napoli is behind the plate.  This team should be able to jump all over left-handed pitching now.

The outfield is better with Murphy in it, but at least to start the season, Ron Washington will go with Borbon in center to give Josh Hamilton some time in left field to hopefully not exert himself so much.  

So, I would say, the offense needs not much explaining because they will just flat-out hit the ball over and over and over.

PITCHING:

I think it's going to turnout somewhat serendipitous that Ogando was thrown in to the rotation in the last minute.  The guy can simply pitch and throw strikes.  I envision Ogando making if VERY difficult to take him out of the rotation and back into the bullpen.  Only a super freaky weak bullpen scenario might prevent this.  Tommy Hunter when well will have to take someone else's spot.  This means Derek Holland and Matt Harrison better show up with their A game or they might be running out of time here in Arlington.  Because of Hunter's injury, he will be thrust back in the rotation when he's healthy based solely on his track record.  I re-emphasize....Hunter and Harrison better show up.

The bullpen could be a disaster.  The OBLs (Old Black Leftys) Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes are simply at the end of their careers being over 40.  However, as long as they both possess their wicked off-speed stuff, they can still get the job done.  But relying on those guys early in the season will spell disaster for the September push.  O'Day has been awful this spring.  I don't see that spilling into the regular season because of his track-record, but it's something to keep an eye on.  Mark Lowe is a guy who has an electric fastball and not much else to keep people off of it.  He's been groomed to be a closer in his past, but he just can't simply set himself apart from anyone.  I suppose Dave Bush could be okay, but those guys have come and gone around here for many many many years and never work out.  However, keep an eye on Pedro Strop.  This is my sleeper candidate for the setup role to Feliz.  Strop, in my opinion, will be this year's version of Alexi Ogando from last year.  Neftali Feliz will be the closer and he's got great stuff...electric if you will.  He's got good enough stuff to be a top tier starting pitcher in this league and I wish they'd have given him that opportunity this year.  However, he only pitched in 27 games last year when he entered with a one run lead or a tie...and he blew 4 of them.  He has great stuff...but he needs to not have a sophomore slump.  That could be detrimental to the whole entire thing.

DEFENSE:

With the addition of Adrian Beltre at 3rd base, the defense is improved.  It's much better with Hamilton in centerfield and Murphy in left (in my opinion) than with Borbon in center and Hamilton in left.  However, when you stand at home plate and look around...it's unbelievable how good defensively this team is.  

BENCH:

With David Murphy as the 4th outfielder, this team is rock solid bench-wise.  With Julio Borbon as the 4th outfielder, this team is lacking quite a bit in the OF department.  If Borbon fails, expect to see Chris Davis back up here playing some left field.  Michael Young now in his super-flex/DH role gives so much infield depth to this team that they can even allow to carry a 13-man pitching staff and hide a kid like Mason Tobin who'll never and hopefully never pitch much before they make some formal deal to keep him and be able to send him down like they should.  But as long as Michael Young is here in this role, they can afford to hide Tobin.

PITCHING DEPTH:
If a starter should be injured expect to see Michael Kirkman who was dominant last year in the minors.  So much so, he made the Rangers post-season roster.  Also, Brandon Webb should be nearing health towards the middle of May and DO NOT FORGET ABOUT ERIC HURLEY.  The kid has had arm problems but seems to be back to being what he was before the injuries.  Before the Rangers had all of these pitching prospects, they had Eric Hurley.  He WAS the only true prospect they had for awhile.  The kid can pitch and I expect to see him here at some point in the season.  Tanner Scheppers can also be a kid who can help in the bullpen this year if it falters.  He's always been regarded as a top-notch prospect who's near major-league ready.

TRADE DEADLINE POSSIBILITIES:
Be on the lookout for a Josh Johnson blockbuster deal in July.  The Marlins are probably going to unload him due to his salary reaching larger heights next season.  If they are out of the race, Johnson could be the Rangers.  He's this year's version of Cliff Lee.  He is a dominating force and a major league top ace.  He's probably a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball.  What's it going to take to get him?  Start with Moreland, possibly Holland and or Kirkman and or Harrison and some other primo prospects.  It's going to be a LOT to give up, but it could mean another jealous Jerry Jones next door in October.  :)

OVERALL:

I give this team a solid chance to reach 90 wins and win the West depending on if Oakland can hit at all.  If Oakland hits, they could win 95 and the Rangers could be very very good 2nd place finishers.  I would have given the Rangers 95 wins for sure if Feliz were in the rotation, but with him pitching in what amounts to 50 meaningless innings and 30 important innings compared to 200 starting innings, I think that'll cost them at least 5 wins.

With or without Josh Johnson, they have a shot of getting out of the first round vs. the Yankees. Only if they get Johnson will they be able to get past the Red Sox for another World Series berth.  

AL West Champions - Texas Rangers
AL East Champions - Boston Red Sox
AL Central Champions - Chicago White Sox
AL Wild Card - New York Yankees


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